IcebergSim

What this is

IcebergSim is a research program in two instruments. The first is a clinical trial simulator: describe a randomized trial, then watch thousands of simulated versions of it run — statistical power, false positives, and what happens when reality gets messy: patients drop out, switch treatments, or get lost along the way. It is open source and running today.

The second, in construction, is a trial integrity instrument: tools that examine a trial's data and weigh the evidence that it was — or was not — produced the way its authors declare. It flags anomalies and attaches the numbers; judgment stays with humans.

Why

The integrity of trials rests mostly on trust: reputation, peer review, institutions. This program works to move part of that weight onto verification — checks that give the same answer no matter who runs them, and no matter how important the author is.

Its own rules follow suit. The integrity instrument is being built under a public constitution; its real-world test datasets are sealed by cryptographic hash before development may look at them; and no claim about what it can detect will be published before its false-alarm rate exists.

The program

• Read the map — the whole program in plain words. If a section can't be said simply, the thinking isn't finished.
• IcebergSim RCT — the simulator: source, specification, tests.
• Run the simulator — the live demonstration.
• IcebergSim Integrity — the integrity instrument. In construction. Its subdomain stays empty until the first calibrated number exists.